domingo, 14 de enero de 2007

Receta para crecer

Priscilla Murphy
Santiago
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Hace décadas que los economistas discuten por qué América Latina perdió el tren de la historia y no se desarrolló como sus vecinos del Norte. Hoy, estudios y más estudios intentan explicar por qué la región no logra competir con los nuevos gigantes emergentes, China e India, que crecen en torno al 10% por año hace más de una década. La novedad es que dos gobiernos de la región, Brasil y Chile, se proponen dar el salto de la teoría a la práctica con el anuncio de paquetes tendientes a impulsar el crecimiento.
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A fines de noviembre, después de una caída de 2,6% en la producción industrial en octubre, el ministro de Hacienda de Chile, Andrés Velasco, anunció una nueva etapa de su plan Chile Compite, concentrada en empujar el crecimiento del país, que está por debajo del previsto para este año. La mejora del PIB, de 6,2% en 2004 y 6,3% el año pasado, bajará a entre 4,75% y 5,25% este año, según el Banco Central chileno.
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Aunque ya se ve una recuperación en datos mensuales, Velasco anunció una serie de medidas para “acelerar el paso”. Por ejemplo, la emisión de US$ 700 millones en deuda pública el próximo año para dar liquidez al mercado de capitales. Para estimular la inversión producticva, amplió la gama de empresas con acceso a exenciones fiscales en la compra de activos. “Es un incentivo directo para inversiones en activos físicos, que promoverá la inversión especialmente en empresas pequeñas”, dijo Velasco en el anuncio.
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El plan incluye un porcentaje uniforme de 30% en crédito tributario para empresas extranjeras que pagan impuestos en el exterior, en un intento por lograr que multinacionales inviertan en otros países desde Chile. Y junto al proyecto de ley para la segunda reforma del mercado de capitales, el gobierno amplió los beneficios tributarios para fondos de capital de riesgo y aumentó el plazo de exención para empresas que abren su capital en bolsa.
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La lista de Velasco es larga e incluye una red de fibra óptica para instituciones públicas y la reducción de 30 a 10 alumnos por cada computadora en la red escolar con la compra de 260.000 equipos. Luego del anuncio, Velasco viajó a Dinamarca para estudiar el sistema laboral con miras a montar un modelo similar en Chile.
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Las medidas fueron elogiadas, pero la duda es si serán suficientes para dar un salto. “Con suerte, Chile va a crecer 4,5% este año, mientras la economia global se expandirá más de 5%”, dice Felipe Larraín, profesor de la Universidad Católica de Chile. “No es que sea un desastre, pero ciertamente no es bueno”.
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“Es poco probable (que las medidas de Chile Compite) conduzcan a una aceleración del crecimiento”, dice, considerando que la economía apresurará su ritmo el próximo año, pero a causa de un incentivo fiscal. Propone medidas como la ampliación de benefícios tributarios para inversiones y del impuesto de timbres y estampillas, un tributo sobre la concesión de crédito de 1,6% que el gobierno promete reducir a 1,2%. Según Larraín, sería un impulso para que las pequeñas y medianas empresas accedan al mercado formal de créditos, sin depender de especuladores.
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En Brasil, pasadas las elecciones, el presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva debe cumplir su principal promesa: “destrabar” la economía. A fines de noviembre, el ministro de Hacienda, Guido Mantega, anticipó algunas medidas de un paquete en esa línea. La idea del gobierno es aumentar la inversión del actual 21% del PIB reduciendo gastos del gobierno. “Debemos caminar hacia una inversión del 25% del PIB”, dijo recientemente Mantega a la agencia oficial de noticias del país. “Este aumento dará un equilibrio, aumentará la oferta del país y nos permitirá crecer 4%, 5% o 6%, sin inflación.”
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Las medidas con relación al gasto público incluirán la construcción de autopistas y puentes, un aumento en la capacidad de endeudamiento de los estados y posiblemente una capitalización de la Caixa Econômica Federal, el segundo mayor banco estatal de Brasil. Pero no incluye una nueva reforma del Sistema Previsional, lo que muchos especialistas consideran fundamental. “Es ridículo que el ministro se proponga aumentar el crecimiento sin resolver el déficit previsional, que causa un agujero de US$ 47.000 millones todos los años”, dice Alfredo Reis, profesor de Brazilian Business School, en São Paulo.
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Según Mantega, el paquete incluirá incentivos tributarios y elevará la expansión del PIB a 5% en 2007. “Tenemos que reducir costos en la economía”.
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Receta conocida
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El Fondo Monetario Internacional también estudia una receta para estimular el crecimiento de la región. En noviembre, Anoop Singh, director del FMI para el Hemisferio Occidental, publicó un estudio en sociedad con el investigador Martín Cerisola con sugerencias para que pueda reducir la brecha con los demás países emergentes. Algunas son las de siempre: reducir el tamaño del Estado, adoptar la independencia del Banco Central e invertir en infraestructura. Otras son más innovadoras, como redireccionar las exenciones y estímulos fiscales de las clases media y alta hacia los más pobres.


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